Механизмы экспертной оценки военно-технологических программ

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В.Н. Бурков, Б.Н. Коробец, В.А. Минаев
116 ISSN 1812-3368. Вестник МГТУ им. Н.Э. Баумана. Сер. Естественные науки. 2017. № 2
Просьба ссылаться на эту статью следующим образом:
Бурков В.Н., Коробец Б.Н., Минаев В.А., Щепкин А.В. Механизмы экспертной оценки
военно-технологических программ // Вестник МГТУ им. Н.Э. Баумана. Сер. Естествен-
ные науки. 2017. № 2. C. 105–117. DOI: 10.18698/1812-3368-2017-2-105-117
MECHANISMS OF MILITARY AND TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRAMS
EXPERT ASSESSMENT
V.N. Burkov 1
B.N. Korobets2
V.A. Minaev 2
A.V. Shchepkin1
1 V.A. Trapeznikov Institute of Control Sciences, Russian Academy of Sciences,
Moscow, Russian Federation
2 Bauman Moscow State Technical University, Moscow, Russian Federation
Abstract Keywords
The paper shows that the success of the military-technological
program (MTP) is largely dependent on its assessment mecha-
nisms operating both at the program development stage, and at the
program implementation stage. The study briefly describes basic
mechanisms used in assessment of the MTP development and
gives a detailed analysis of the MTP expert mechanisms. In our
research we developed the MTP variants characterized by the
requirement of non-manipulability, reflecting the interest of the
governing bodies in having reliable and objective information.
Findings of the research show that the problem of correct organi-
zation of the MTP examination is effectively solved within the
framework of the active systems theory. In this case, the Centre
organizes the MTP examination in order to obtain the most accu-
rate and objective assessment, and experts being active elements of
the examination process may choose a strategy of their own beha-
vior so that the final expert assessment would be the most appro-
priate to their interests. We formalized the experts' basic functions
and objectives, as well as the conditions which if fulfilled lead to
determining the resulting assessment, reflecting the experts' shared
opinion. This could be done in the case of Nash equilibrium and
according to reliable evaluation of experts findings. The study
proved that the resultant expert assessment of any expert coincides
with their true MTP assessment. The expert's own opinion on the
program project does not play any role in determining their rating.
The study shows that it is reasonable for the Centre to choose the
strategy, so that MPT examination takes into consideration two
extreme situations in the expert's behavior — the desire to defend
their views and not to lower their rating
Military-technology program,
mechanisms of expert assess-
ment, active systems, Nash
equilibrium, expert rating,
shared opinion
REFERENCES
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cow, ICS RAS Publ., 2002. 54 p.